Research
Research in our lab group is united by a desire to understand how climate change is altering water in the western U.S. and beyond. We also aim to move beyond climate change impacts into understanding the role water plays in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Our methods are primarily computational, using physically-based modeling and data science approaches to advance these research areas.
Our work has been funded by:
- National Science Foundation
- NOAA and USGS through the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH)
- Colorado Department of Transportation
- Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
- Carnegie Institution of Washington
Snow in the western U.S.
Climate change is rapidly altering snowpack magnitude and timing across much of the western U.S., with critical implications for water resources and ecosystems. Work in our group uses data science and physically based modeling to answer questions like:
- How are snow drifts changing?
- How are interannual variability and the frequency of multi-year snow droughts changing?
- How might changing precipitation intensity mitigate or exacerbate the effects of warming on winter snowmelt?
- What do we need to know about the opposite of snow drought — what we might call snow deluge?
Uncertainty in Hydrologic models
Hydrologic models help us understand hydrologic processes, forecast streamflow on subseasonal to seasonal timescales, and simulate the effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources. But these models have multiple sources of uncertainty that affect the accuracy of their predictions and the understanding we glean from them. In this research theme, our group aims to better understand these sources of uncertainty and identify modeling approaches that account for such uncertainty. Some of this work has focused on complex permafrost dynamics in Alaska, with other projects focusing on high-elevation watersheds in Colorado. 
Specifically, we’ve developed:
- a new method for evaluating model robustness in warming climates, with an R package to implement the method
- an evaluation of the relative contributions of parameter and climate data uncertainty to future hydrologic uncertainty
Work on this research theme led by our lab has been funded by the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology.
Hydropower in the energy system
While water resources are affected by climate change, water also feeds back into the climate system, with the potential to reduce or exacerbate warming. One of these feedbacks occurs through hydropower: hydropower is a low-emissions energy source that may be increasingly valuable in grids with large amounts of renewables, but it has very serious physical, social, and ecological constraints. Our work in this area aims to understand both the opportunities and limitations for hydropower in a warming world with a decarbonizing grid. Publications in this area have addressd:
- important knowns and unknowns about water use for energy in a world where both the water and energy systems are non-stationary
- impacts of interannual variability in snowfall on the timing of hydropower production and its synchrony with solar power
- high temporal resolution characterization of hydropower operations across the contiguous U.S.
- a review of hydroclimate risks to the western U.S. electricity grid
Research in this theme area has been funded by the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the Carnegie Institution of Washington.
Selected Media Coverage
- Snow Melts Fast in Wildfire Burn Areas, Imperiling Water Supply. Bloomberg. 2025.
- Study says California’s 2023 snowy rescue from megadrought was a freak event. Don’t get used to it. Associated Press. 2024.
- Hydropower production took a hit in 2023. NPR Marketplace. 2023.
- Hydropower is 53% of the renewable energy supply in the West. Drought is slowing down production. Colorado Sun. 2022.
- ‘Snow droughts’ are coming for the American West. National Geographic. 2019.
- Climate change will mean more multiyear snow droughts in the West. The Conversation. 2019.
-
Consecutive Years Of ‘Snow Drought’ May Become More Common In The West. Boise State Public Radio. 2019.